Robinson Cano and Optimal Outcomes Based On Statcast Data

*Reading this on mobile may cut off the charts.  There is a lot of data and it is too wide.  If you want to read it all please use a tablet but a computer is best.  Sorry. 

I wanted to dive deeper into an actual hitters in game bat speed and see if the ratios and outcomes correlate.  I do want to note that I changed the OPT BAT/EXIT ratio to an easy SMASH which is Smash factor.  This is a title change only so when comparing my old data to new, these are interchangeable.

I picked Robinson Cano.  I was going to do a different analysis on him but I was more interested in applying this theory.  I wanted to look at his best or optimal exit velo outcomes.  I decided to pick all fly balls (to account for spin.  You can have a line drive and a fly ball both at the same launch angle, or at least statcast shows this.  I assume its due to height of the hit ball as well and not launch alone) that were hit in a 21-30 degree launch.  In my experience, these are balls that are usually squared up and are the ideal launch angle.  These averaged 25 degrees.

 

Data Explanation

Lets look at the data (left to right)

  • Pitch Type – Self explanatory
  • Release Speed – Self explanatory
  • BB Type – Self explanatory
  • Hit Distance – Self explanatory
  • Launch Speed – Exit Velo
  • Launch Angle – Self explanatory
  • 1.2 0.2 Exp – This is the expected exit velo based on pitch speed and bat speed while making optimal contact. This is a sliding scale and we adjust bat speed to match exit velos.
  • Opt Smash – This is the optimal smash factor or the optimal ratio of 1.2 0.2 Exp divided by Bat Speed.
  • Bat Speed – The assumed bat speed to create the actual exit velo based on pitch speed.
  • Act Smash – This gets into a different concept of calculating bat speed.  If we assume that bat speed stays constant each swing, then the only variable would be quality of contact.  It would range from optimal to poor.  1.45 or more would be optimal.  1.40 – 1.45 would be good.  Remember that the smash factor changes as pitch and bat speed changes.  It is not a constant number.
  • Bat Speed Ass – Bat Speed Assumed is taking the average bat speed of the optimal swing/contact outcomes and using that static number.  This assumes that bat speed is constant in every swing and only quality of contact is changing.

 

Cano Fly Balls 21-30 degrees

Bat Speed Changes Contact Changes
pitch_type release_speed bb_type hit_distance_sc launch_speed launch_angle 1.2 0.2 Exp Opt Smash Bat Speed Act Smash Bat Speed Ass
FS 87 fly_ball 403 107.9 21 107.4 1.432 75 1.56565144 68.917
CH 79 fly_ball 348 96.2 21 96.2 1.4358 67 1.395882 68.917
FF 93.6 fly_ball 413 101.9 23 101.52 1.4713 69 1.47859019 68.917
CH 88.9 fly_ball 404 108.1 23 107.78 1.4371 75 1.56855348 68.917
CH 84.8 fly_ball 372 100.6 23 100.96 1.4423 70 1.45972692 68.917
FC 90.3 fly_ball 371 99.2 25 99.66 1.4656 68 1.43941263 68.917
FF 91.3 fly_ball 413 107.1 25 107.06 1.4468 74 1.55404327 68.917
FF 92.7 fly_ball 339 94.1 26 94.14 1.4943 63 1.36541057 68.917
FF 92.8 fly_ball 405 102.3 27 102.56 1.4651 70 1.48439427 68.917
FF 96.4 fly_ball 343 91.4 30 92.48 1.5161 61 1.326233 68.917
FT 90.8 fly_ball 379 100.6 30 99.76 1.4671 68 1.45972692 68.917
CU 73.8 fly_ball 368 95.8 30 95.16 1.4203 67 1.39007792 68.917
AVERAGES 88.450 379.833 100.433 25.333 100.390 1.458 68.917 1.457 68.917

 

This data shows that Cano has an average bat speed of 68.917 mph and an optimal smash of 1.458.  It is assuming that if he sees an average pitch speed of 88.45 mph, swings his average bat speed of 68.917 mph, makes optimal smash factor contact of 1.458, his expected exit velo would be 100.39.

There are 3 ways of looking at this data.  We must assume that these results in the 21-30 degree range were optimal contact.

  1. We adjust the bat speed to create optimal exit velo.  These calculations are in the Bat Speed Changes columns.
  2. We adjust smash factors or quality of contact to change exit velo.  This assumes that we use a constant bat speed of 68.917.  These calculations are in the Contact Changes column.
  3. In reality is a mix of both.  Cano’s bat speed changes based on pitch type, location, count, and he makes different quality of contact to produce different smash factors.

Lets look at other data from Cano…

 

Cano Fly Balls above 30 degrees

We want to compare optimal contact fly balls to fly balls that were not.

Bat Speed Changes Contact Changes
pitch_type release_speed bb_type hit_distance_sc launch_speed launch_angle 1.2 0.2 Exp Opt Smash Bat Speed Act Smash Bat Speed Ass
FF 92.8 fly_ball 344 93.9 31 94.16 1.4946 63 1.36250852 68.917
FT 90.4 fly_ball 345 93.2 31 92.48 1.4916 62 1.35235138 68.917
CH 83.5 fly_ball 310 86.8 31 85.1 1.493 57 1.25948605 68.917
FT 95.7 fly_ball 305 88 31 88.74 1.53 58 1.2768983 68.917
FF 90.9 fly_ball 385 103.7 32 103.38 1.4561 71 1.50470856 68.917
FC 94.1 fly_ball 249 72 34 72.82 1.6182 45 1.04473497 68.917
SL 88.2 fly_ball 348 98.4 34 98.04 1.4633 67 1.42780446 68.917
FT 99.4 fly_ball 334 94.2 35 94.28 1.5206 62 1.36686159 68.917
FT 92.1 fly_ball 305 87.5 35 86.82 1.5232 57 1.26964319 68.917
FF 95.7 fly_ball 312 91.9 40 92.34 1.5138 61 1.33348811 68.917
FF 92.3 fly_ball 230 75.5 46 74.86 1.5928 47 1.0955207 68.917
CH 85.7 fly_ball 289 92.1 47 91.54 1.4765 62 1.33639015 68.917
CH 87 fly_ball 263 81.4 47 81 1.5283 53 1.18113093 68.917
FC 91.4 fly_ball 259 84.9 47 84.28 1.5324 55 1.23191665 68.917
FF 89.1 fly_ball 233 86.4 54 86.22 1.5126 57 1.25368197 68.917
AVERAGES 91.220 300.733 88.660 38.333 88.404 1.516 58.467 1.286 68.917

 

This data shows that his actual exit velos are down to 88.66 vs 100.43 mph.  Average launch angle is up to 38 from 25 degrees.  Lets look at the 3 ways to look at the data again.

  1. We adjust the bat speed to create optimal exit velo.  These calculations are in the Bat Speed Changes columns.  This would show that instead of having a range of 68-75 mph and average of 68.917 mph in the optimal exit velo chart he now has an average 58.467 bat speed and a range of 45-71 mph.  This is probable but not likely.  It is probable because he may have been fooled, check swing, got jammed and had to slow his bat speed down to make contact.
  2. We adjust smash factors or quality of contact to change exit velo.  This assumes that we use a constant bat speed of 68.917.  These calculations are in the Contact Changes column.  These show something that is more likely.  Cano’s bat speed is closer to his average and he just made bad contact.  We go from a smash of 1.457 in optimal to 1.286 in this chart.  This would probably rank very low in smash factors.
  3. We assume that he had a lower bat speed and made worse contact.  This is probably what is going on but hard to know without actual in game bat speed data from a bat sensor.  We take something in the middle of 1 and 2.

 

What about line drives? 

I know we will have some people claiming that fly balls might not be optimal contact and that line drives have the highest expected batting and on base averages.  Lets look at those.

Bat Speed Changes Contact Changes
pitch_type release_speed bb_type hit_distance_sc launch_speed launch_angle 1.2 0.2 Exp Opt Smash Bat Speed Act Smash Bat Speed Ass
FT 92.7 line_drive 169 104 6 103.74 1.4611 71 1.56955072 66.261
CU 82.6 line_drive 145 102.3 7 101.72 1.4327 71 1.5438946 66.261
FT 93.7 line_drive 158 105.2 7 105.14 1.4603 72 1.58766092 66.261
FC 89 line_drive 185 95 8 94.6 1.4781 64 1.43372421 66.261
SI 89.9 line_drive 197 103.3 9 103.18 1.4532 71 1.55898643 66.261
FC 88.9 line_drive 221 104.2 9 102.98 1.4504 71 1.57256908 66.261
SI 95.5 line_drive 178 90.9 9 89.9 1.5237 59 1.37184769 66.261
FF 96.6 line_drive 242 105.9 10 105.72 1.4683 72 1.5982252 66.261
FF 89.7 line_drive 222 98.5 10 98.34 1.4678 67 1.48654563 66.261
FF 95.7 line_drive 228 102 11 101.94 1.4774 69 1.53936705 66.261
CU 81.4 line_drive 181 96.6 11 96.68 1.443 67 1.45787115 66.261
FF 89.1 line_drive 258 106.1 11 106.62 1.4408 74 1.60124357 66.261
FF 96.3 line_drive 289 104.6 12 104.46 1.4713 71 1.57860582 66.261
SL 85.4 line_drive 282 102.6 12 102.28 1.4406 71 1.54842215 66.261
CU 80.4 line_drive 252 91.2 12 91.68 1.4552 63 1.37637524 66.261
FF 95.8 line_drive 160 76 12 76.76 1.5992 48 1.14697937 66.261
FT 89.2 line_drive 265 97.9 13 97.04 1.4703 66 1.47749053 66.261
SI 95.5 line_drive 170 76.1 13 76.7 1.5979 48 1.14848855 66.261
FT 89.6 line_drive 289 99.4 14 99.52 1.4635 68 1.50012828 66.261
FF 92.1 line_drive 226 89.9 14 90.42 1.507 60 1.35675586 66.261
SL 87.9 line_drive 269 94.1 14 94.38 1.4747 64 1.42014156 66.261
SL 77.2 line_drive 275 93.5 15 93.44 1.4375 65 1.41108646 66.261
SI 90.3 line_drive 311 104.9 15 104.46 1.4508 72 1.58313337 66.261
AVERAGES 89.761 224.870 97.574 11.043 97.465 1.475 66.261 1.473 66.261

 

Here are line drives up to 15 degrees.  I would say that these are the best quality contact line drives a hitter can have.  The ones under 10 degrees are probably lined to infielders or one hop an infielder but are still classified as a solid hit line drive.

Average line drive exit velo is 95.574.  To get the bat speed assuming optimal smash his bat speed averages 66.261 mph.  This is slightly lower than the 68.917 mph in his fly balls.  This does make sense though and I have seen hitters have faster bat speeds the higher they hit the ball.

Everything checks out in this chart.  Lets look at non optimal outcomes of line drives.

Bat Speed Changes Contact Changes
pitch_type release_speed bb_type hit_distance_sc launch_speed launch_angle 1.2 0.2 Exp Opt Smash Bat Speed Act Smash Bat Speed Ass
SI 91.8 line_drive 245 85 16 85.56 1.5279 56 1.28280587 66.261
SI 89 line_drive 217 68.2 16 68.2 1.6238 42 1.02926307 66.261
FT 95.6 line_drive 290 99.2 16 99.52 1.4854 67 1.49710991 66.261
KC 79.9 line_drive 223 82 17 81.98 1.4905 55 1.23753037 66.261
FF 96.5 line_drive 311 91.5 17 91.3 1.5217 60 1.38090279 66.261
SI 91.2 line_drive 251 87.7 17 87.84 1.5145 58 1.32355383 66.261
FF 93.7 line_drive 332 96.9 19 96.74 1.4883 65 1.4623987 66.261
FF 89 line_drive 326 94.3 19 94.6 1.4781 64 1.42315993 66.261
FF 92 line_drive 305 93.2 20 92.8 1.4968 62 1.40655891 66.261
FF 97.9 line_drive 154 64.8 20 65.18 1.7153 38 0.97795083 66.261
SL 86.3 line_drive 398 102.5 20 102.46 1.4431 71 1.54691297 66.261
SL 88.4 line_drive 268 82.1 21 82.48 1.5274 54 1.23903956 66.261
CH 85.3 line_drive 334 97 22 97.46 1.4546 67 1.46390788 66.261
FF 92.8 line_drive 380 100.9 22 100.16 1.4729 68 1.52276603 66.261
FF 96.9 line_drive 309 94.4 22 94.98 1.5076 63 1.42466911 66.261
SL 88.7 line_drive 284 80.6 23 80.14 1.5412 52 1.2164018 66.261
FT 97.3 line_drive 328 92.9 24 92.66 1.519 61 1.40203136 66.261
SI 91.8 line_drive 297 89.1 25 89.16 1.5112 59 1.34468239 66.261
AVERAGES 91.339 291.778 89.017 19.778 89.068 1.518 59.000 1.343 66.261

 

Here we see that exit velo drops to 89.017.  This drop is comparable to the drop of optimal – non optimal in fly balls, it seems consistent.   Look at Bat Speed Changes vs Contact Changes.

  • Bat Speed Changes assumes that his bat speed averaged 59 mph and ranged from 38-68 mph.  Possible but not likely.  If we do assume bat speed changes then smash would stay optimal.  But this isn’t happening.
  • Contact Changes assumes that he swung at all his line drives at his line drive average of 66.261 mph but only the quality of contact or smash factor changed.  It dropped from 1.518 to 1.343.   This change is comparable to the fly ball smash factor change as well.
  • The reality again is that it is somewhere in the middle of both.

 

Conclusion

What have we learned?  This is actually really interesting data and it lines up and makes sense.  We learned that Cano can probably have a bat speed max of 75 mph but averages 68.917 mph on fly balls and 66.261 on line drives.  We also learned that his optimal quality of contact or smash factor for fly balls is 1.458 and 1.475 for line drives.  His bad smash factor for fly balls is 1.286 and line drives is 1.343.  Knowing this data we can start to predict optimal outcomes for each swing a hitter takes.  We know the pitch speed, we have an optimal average swing speed, and we have a range of optimal smash factors.  When these are calculated we can assume that for a 95 mph fast ball, cano will have an average bat speed of 68.917, and a smash of 1.458 which would equal an exit velo of 101.7 mph.

I would like to eventually find a way to not look at barrels as the best outcome but look at individual player smash factors and exit velo to determine if his hit was an A+ grade.  This is because a barrel is a blanket equation but Dee Gordon wont get many, if any.  But he can still make A+ contact and should be credited for that.