Statcast Data From the 2018 Home Run Derby – Calculating Bat Speed

*Reading this on mobile may cut off the charts.  There is a lot of data and it is too wide.  If you want to read it all please use a tablet but a computer is best.  Sorry.

To build on my last couple posts and dive deeper into statcast data and calculating optimal contact and bat speeds I pulled data from Baseball Savant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/hr_derby

I picked random rounds and Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Alex Bregman to see if the assumptions line up to batting practice pitch speed (assuming 60 mph) and where the hitter is going all out to swing hard at grooved pitches.

  • 1.2 0.2 Exp = Is what the optimal exit velo should be based on bat speed and pitch speed.  = 1.2 x bat speed + 0.2 x pitch speed
  • Opt Bat/Exit = Optimal ratios

Data

Batter Round Exit Velo Distance Launch Pitch Speed Bat Speed 1.2 0.2 Exp Opt Bat/Exit
Alex Bregman 1 103 422 23 60 76 103.2 1.358
Alex Bregman 1 100 401 27 60 73 99.6 1.364
Alex Bregman 1 98 399 28 60 72 98.4 1.367
Alex Bregman 1 100 385 24 60 73 99.6 1.364
Alex Bregman 1 95 386 33 60 69 94.8 1.374
Alex Bregman 1 100 416 25 60 73 99.6 1.364
Alex Bregman 1 99 404 30 60 73 99.6 1.364
Alex Bregman 1 98 390 33 60 72 98.4 1.367
Alex Bregman 1 98 377 35 60 72 98.4 1.367
Alex Bregman 1 102 413 27 60 75 102 1.360
Alex Bregman 1 100 409 23 60 73 99.6 1.364
Alex Bregman 1 98 404 31 60 72 98.4 1.367
Alex Bregman 1 98 406 29 60 72 98.4 1.367
99.154 400.923 28.308 60.000 72.692 99.231 1.365

 

Batter Round Exit Velo Distance Launch Pitch Speed Bat Speed 1.2 0.2 Exp Opt Bat/Exit
Bryce Harper 3 109 434 30 60 81 109.2 1.348
Bryce Harper 3 101 386 35 60 74 100.8 1.362
Bryce Harper 3 111 478 30 60 82 110.4 1.346
Bryce Harper 3 106 444 32 60 78 105.6 1.354
Bryce Harper 3 112 452 25 60 83 111.6 1.345
Bryce Harper 3 109 429 34 60 81 109.2 1.348
Bryce Harper 3 105 408 39 60 78 105.6 1.354
Bryce Harper 3 110 438 36 60 81 109.2 1.348
Bryce Harper 3 108 450 33 60 80 108 1.350
Bryce Harper 3 109 426 30 60 81 109.2 1.348
Bryce Harper 3 109 453 31 60 81 109.2 1.348
Bryce Harper 3 112 473 31 60 83 111.6 1.345
Bryce Harper 3 109 436 26 60 81 109.2 1.348
Bryce Harper 3 108 408 39 60 80 108 1.350
Bryce Harper 3 104 362 25 60 77 104.4 1.356
Bryce Harper 3 97 382 38 60 71 97.2 1.369
Bryce Harper 3 105 439 36 60 78 105.6 1.354
Bryce Harper 3 105 427 34 60 78 105.6 1.354
107.167 429.167 32.444 60.000 79.333 107.200 1.351

 

Batter Round Exit Velo Distance Launch Pitch Speed Bat Speed 1.2 0.2 Exp Opt Bat/Exit
Kyle Schwarber 3 108 446 24 60 80 108 1.350
Kyle Schwarber 3 105 422 32 60 78 105.6 1.354
Kyle Schwarber 3 109 446 26 60 81 109.2 1.348
Kyle Schwarber 3 110 442 26 60 82 110.4 1.346
Kyle Schwarber 3 110 446 30 60 82 110.4 1.346
Kyle Schwarber 3 109 430 25 60 81 109.2 1.348
Kyle Schwarber 3 105 433 30 60 78 105.6 1.354
Kyle Schwarber 3 107 442 29 60 79 106.8 1.352
Kyle Schwarber 3 111 435 22 60 83 111.6 1.345
Kyle Schwarber 3 105 413 34 60 78 105.6 1.354
Kyle Schwarber 3 112 393 18 60 83 111.6 1.345
Kyle Schwarber 3 109 430 23 60 81 109.2 1.348
Kyle Schwarber 3 104 416 34 60 77 104.4 1.356
Kyle Schwarber 3 107 441 27 60 79 106.8 1.352
Kyle Schwarber 3 98 397 26 60 72 98.4 1.367
Kyle Schwarber 3 104 435 27 60 77 104.4 1.356
Kyle Schwarber 3 104 428 33 60 77 104.4 1.356
Kyle Schwarber 3 110 453 26 60 82 110.4 1.346
107.056 430.444 27.333 60.000 79.444 107.333 1.351

 

We are assuming perfect contact on these home runs.  We see that an Opt Bat/Exit or smash factor ratio of 1.35-1.365 on pitches 60 mph is accurate.  Remember that as the pitch speed goes up, ratios go up keeping bat speed constant.

We can also see that as bat speed increases, Opt Bat/Exit or smash factor decrease slightly.  Higher bat speeds are less efficient but higher pitch speeds also create higher ratios.

Here is that chart:

Bat Speed Pitch Speed 1.2 0.2 Exp Opt Bat/Exit
62 40 82.4 1.329
65 40 86 1.323
68 40 89.6 1.318
72 40 94.4 1.311
76 40 99.2 1.305
62 70 88.4 1.426
65 70 92 1.415
68 70 95.6 1.406
72 70 100.4 1.394
76 70 105.2 1.384
62 80 90.4 1.458
65 80 94 1.446
68 80 97.6 1.435
72 80 102.4 1.422
76 80 107.2 1.411
62 90 92.4 1.490
65 90 96 1.477
68 90 99.6 1.465
72 90 104.4 1.450
76 90 109.2 1.437
62 95 93.4 1.506
65 95 97 1.492
68 95 100.6 1.479
72 95 105.4 1.464
76 95 110.2 1.450

 

Results

As expected, Alex Bregman has a lower bat speed than Harper or Schwarber.  Harper and Schwarber are basically identical.  This lines up with in game performance as well.

Exit Velo Distance Launch Pitch Speed Bat Speed 1.2 0.2 Exp Opt Bat/Exit
Bryce Harper 107.167 429.167 32.444 60.000 79.333 107.200 1.351
Kyle Schwarber 107.056 430.444 27.333 60.000 79.444 107.333 1.351
Alex Bregman 99.154 400.923 28.308 60.000 72.692 99.231 1.365

 

Conclusion

So far everything is checking out.  These hitters are swinging as hard as they can in the home run derby and assuming a pitch speed of 60 mph its easy to look at the results.  These numbers coincide with in game performance as well.  Remember that in a game, hitters rarely swing as hard as they can.

We can actually dig into Harpers performance and see if his swing slowed down into later rounds.  That’s for another time…