Category: Statcast Data

*Reading this on mobile may cut off the charts.  There is a lot of data and it is too wide.  If you want to read it all please use a tablet but a computer is best.  Sorry. 

I wanted to dive deeper into an actual hitters in game bat speed and see if the ratios and outcomes correlate.  I do want to note that I changed the OPT BAT/EXIT ratio to an easy SMASH which is Smash factor.  This is a title change only so when comparing my old data to new, these are interchangeable.

I picked Robinson Cano.  I was going to do a different analysis on him but I was more interested in applying this theory.  I wanted to look at his best or optimal exit velo outcomes.  I decided to pick all fly balls (to account for spin.  You can have a line drive and a fly ball both at the same launch angle, or at least statcast shows this.  I assume its due to height of the hit ball as well and not launch alone) that were hit in a 21-30 degree launch.  In my experience, these are balls that are usually squared up and are the ideal launch angle.  These averaged 25 degrees.

 

Data Explanation

Lets look at the data (left to right)

• Pitch Type – Self explanatory
• Release Speed – Self explanatory
• BB Type – Self explanatory
• Hit Distance – Self explanatory
• Launch Speed – Exit Velo
• Launch Angle – Self explanatory
• 1.2 0.2 Exp – This is the expected exit velo based on pitch speed and bat speed while making optimal contact. This is a sliding scale and we adjust bat speed to match exit velos.
• Opt Smash – This is the optimal smash factor or the optimal ratio of 1.2 0.2 Exp divided by Bat Speed.
• Bat Speed – The assumed bat speed to create the actual exit velo based on pitch speed.
• Act Smash – This gets into a different concept of calculating bat speed.  If we assume that bat speed stays constant each swing, then the only variable would be quality of contact.  It would range from optimal to poor.  1.45 or more would be optimal.  1.40 – 1.45 would be good.  Remember that the smash factor changes as pitch and bat speed changes.  It is not a constant number.
• Bat Speed Ass – Bat Speed Assumed is taking the average bat speed of the optimal swing/contact outcomes and using that static number.  This assumes that bat speed is constant in every swing and only quality of contact is changing.

 

Cano Fly Balls 21-30 degrees

							Bat Speed Changes				Contact Changes
pitch_type	release_speed	bb_type	hit_distance_sc	launch_speed	launch_angle		1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Smash	Bat Speed		Act Smash	Bat Speed Ass
FS	87	fly_ball	403	107.9	21		107.4	1.432	75		1.56565144	68.917
CH	79	fly_ball	348	96.2	21		96.2	1.4358	67		1.395882	68.917
FF	93.6	fly_ball	413	101.9	23		101.52	1.4713	69		1.47859019	68.917
CH	88.9	fly_ball	404	108.1	23		107.78	1.4371	75		1.56855348	68.917
CH	84.8	fly_ball	372	100.6	23		100.96	1.4423	70		1.45972692	68.917
FC	90.3	fly_ball	371	99.2	25		99.66	1.4656	68		1.43941263	68.917
FF	91.3	fly_ball	413	107.1	25		107.06	1.4468	74		1.55404327	68.917
FF	92.7	fly_ball	339	94.1	26		94.14	1.4943	63		1.36541057	68.917
FF	92.8	fly_ball	405	102.3	27		102.56	1.4651	70		1.48439427	68.917
FF	96.4	fly_ball	343	91.4	30		92.48	1.5161	61		1.326233	68.917
FT	90.8	fly_ball	379	100.6	30		99.76	1.4671	68		1.45972692	68.917
CU	73.8	fly_ball	368	95.8	30		95.16	1.4203	67		1.39007792	68.917
AVERAGES	88.450		379.833	100.433	25.333		100.390	1.458	68.917		1.457	68.917

 

This data shows that Cano has an average bat speed of 68.917 mph and an optimal smash of 1.458.  It is assuming that if he sees an average pitch speed of 88.45 mph, swings his average bat speed of 68.917 mph, makes optimal smash factor contact of 1.458, his expected exit velo would be 100.39.

There are 3 ways of looking at this data.  We must assume that these results in the 21-30 degree range were optimal contact.

1. We adjust the bat speed to create optimal exit velo.  These calculations are in the Bat Speed Changes columns.
2. We adjust smash factors or quality of contact to change exit velo.  This assumes that we use a constant bat speed of 68.917.  These calculations are in the Contact Changes column.
3. In reality is a mix of both.  Cano’s bat speed changes based on pitch type, location, count, and he makes different quality of contact to produce different smash factors.

Lets look at other data from Cano…

 

Cano Fly Balls above 30 degrees

We want to compare optimal contact fly balls to fly balls that were not.

							Bat Speed Changes				Contact Changes
pitch_type	release_speed	bb_type	hit_distance_sc	launch_speed	launch_angle		1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Smash	Bat Speed		Act Smash	Bat Speed Ass
FF	92.8	fly_ball	344	93.9	31		94.16	1.4946	63		1.36250852	68.917
FT	90.4	fly_ball	345	93.2	31		92.48	1.4916	62		1.35235138	68.917
CH	83.5	fly_ball	310	86.8	31		85.1	1.493	57		1.25948605	68.917
FT	95.7	fly_ball	305	88	31		88.74	1.53	58		1.2768983	68.917
FF	90.9	fly_ball	385	103.7	32		103.38	1.4561	71		1.50470856	68.917
FC	94.1	fly_ball	249	72	34		72.82	1.6182	45		1.04473497	68.917
SL	88.2	fly_ball	348	98.4	34		98.04	1.4633	67		1.42780446	68.917
FT	99.4	fly_ball	334	94.2	35		94.28	1.5206	62		1.36686159	68.917
FT	92.1	fly_ball	305	87.5	35		86.82	1.5232	57		1.26964319	68.917
FF	95.7	fly_ball	312	91.9	40		92.34	1.5138	61		1.33348811	68.917
FF	92.3	fly_ball	230	75.5	46		74.86	1.5928	47		1.0955207	68.917
CH	85.7	fly_ball	289	92.1	47		91.54	1.4765	62		1.33639015	68.917
CH	87	fly_ball	263	81.4	47		81	1.5283	53		1.18113093	68.917
FC	91.4	fly_ball	259	84.9	47		84.28	1.5324	55		1.23191665	68.917
FF	89.1	fly_ball	233	86.4	54		86.22	1.5126	57		1.25368197	68.917
AVERAGES	91.220		300.733	88.660	38.333		88.404	1.516	58.467		1.286	68.917

 

This data shows that his actual exit velos are down to 88.66 vs 100.43 mph.  Average launch angle is up to 38 from 25 degrees.  Lets look at the 3 ways to look at the data again.

1. We adjust the bat speed to create optimal exit velo.  These calculations are in the Bat Speed Changes columns.  This would show that instead of having a range of 68-75 mph and average of 68.917 mph in the optimal exit velo chart he now has an average 58.467 bat speed and a range of 45-71 mph.  This is probable but not likely.  It is probable because he may have been fooled, check swing, got jammed and had to slow his bat speed down to make contact.
2. We adjust smash factors or quality of contact to change exit velo.  This assumes that we use a constant bat speed of 68.917.  These calculations are in the Contact Changes column.  These show something that is more likely.  Cano’s bat speed is closer to his average and he just made bad contact.  We go from a smash of 1.457 in optimal to 1.286 in this chart.  This would probably rank very low in smash factors.
3. We assume that he had a lower bat speed and made worse contact.  This is probably what is going on but hard to know without actual in game bat speed data from a bat sensor.  We take something in the middle of 1 and 2.

 

What about line drives? 

I know we will have some people claiming that fly balls might not be optimal contact and that line drives have the highest expected batting and on base averages.  Lets look at those.

							Bat Speed Changes				Contact Changes
pitch_type	release_speed	bb_type	hit_distance_sc	launch_speed	launch_angle		1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Smash	Bat Speed		Act Smash	Bat Speed Ass
FT	92.7	line_drive	169	104	6		103.74	1.4611	71		1.56955072	66.261
CU	82.6	line_drive	145	102.3	7		101.72	1.4327	71		1.5438946	66.261
FT	93.7	line_drive	158	105.2	7		105.14	1.4603	72		1.58766092	66.261
FC	89	line_drive	185	95	8		94.6	1.4781	64		1.43372421	66.261
SI	89.9	line_drive	197	103.3	9		103.18	1.4532	71		1.55898643	66.261
FC	88.9	line_drive	221	104.2	9		102.98	1.4504	71		1.57256908	66.261
SI	95.5	line_drive	178	90.9	9		89.9	1.5237	59		1.37184769	66.261
FF	96.6	line_drive	242	105.9	10		105.72	1.4683	72		1.5982252	66.261
FF	89.7	line_drive	222	98.5	10		98.34	1.4678	67		1.48654563	66.261
FF	95.7	line_drive	228	102	11		101.94	1.4774	69		1.53936705	66.261
CU	81.4	line_drive	181	96.6	11		96.68	1.443	67		1.45787115	66.261
FF	89.1	line_drive	258	106.1	11		106.62	1.4408	74		1.60124357	66.261
FF	96.3	line_drive	289	104.6	12		104.46	1.4713	71		1.57860582	66.261
SL	85.4	line_drive	282	102.6	12		102.28	1.4406	71		1.54842215	66.261
CU	80.4	line_drive	252	91.2	12		91.68	1.4552	63		1.37637524	66.261
FF	95.8	line_drive	160	76	12		76.76	1.5992	48		1.14697937	66.261
FT	89.2	line_drive	265	97.9	13		97.04	1.4703	66		1.47749053	66.261
SI	95.5	line_drive	170	76.1	13		76.7	1.5979	48		1.14848855	66.261
FT	89.6	line_drive	289	99.4	14		99.52	1.4635	68		1.50012828	66.261
FF	92.1	line_drive	226	89.9	14		90.42	1.507	60		1.35675586	66.261
SL	87.9	line_drive	269	94.1	14		94.38	1.4747	64		1.42014156	66.261
SL	77.2	line_drive	275	93.5	15		93.44	1.4375	65		1.41108646	66.261
SI	90.3	line_drive	311	104.9	15		104.46	1.4508	72		1.58313337	66.261
AVERAGES	89.761		224.870	97.574	11.043		97.465	1.475	66.261		1.473	66.261

 

Here are line drives up to 15 degrees.  I would say that these are the best quality contact line drives a hitter can have.  The ones under 10 degrees are probably lined to infielders or one hop an infielder but are still classified as a solid hit line drive.

Average line drive exit velo is 95.574.  To get the bat speed assuming optimal smash his bat speed averages 66.261 mph.  This is slightly lower than the 68.917 mph in his fly balls.  This does make sense though and I have seen hitters have faster bat speeds the higher they hit the ball.

Everything checks out in this chart.  Lets look at non optimal outcomes of line drives.

							Bat Speed Changes				Contact Changes
pitch_type	release_speed	bb_type	hit_distance_sc	launch_speed	launch_angle		1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Smash	Bat Speed		Act Smash	Bat Speed Ass
SI	91.8	line_drive	245	85	16		85.56	1.5279	56		1.28280587	66.261
SI	89	line_drive	217	68.2	16		68.2	1.6238	42		1.02926307	66.261
FT	95.6	line_drive	290	99.2	16		99.52	1.4854	67		1.49710991	66.261
KC	79.9	line_drive	223	82	17		81.98	1.4905	55		1.23753037	66.261
FF	96.5	line_drive	311	91.5	17		91.3	1.5217	60		1.38090279	66.261
SI	91.2	line_drive	251	87.7	17		87.84	1.5145	58		1.32355383	66.261
FF	93.7	line_drive	332	96.9	19		96.74	1.4883	65		1.4623987	66.261
FF	89	line_drive	326	94.3	19		94.6	1.4781	64		1.42315993	66.261
FF	92	line_drive	305	93.2	20		92.8	1.4968	62		1.40655891	66.261
FF	97.9	line_drive	154	64.8	20		65.18	1.7153	38		0.97795083	66.261
SL	86.3	line_drive	398	102.5	20		102.46	1.4431	71		1.54691297	66.261
SL	88.4	line_drive	268	82.1	21		82.48	1.5274	54		1.23903956	66.261
CH	85.3	line_drive	334	97	22		97.46	1.4546	67		1.46390788	66.261
FF	92.8	line_drive	380	100.9	22		100.16	1.4729	68		1.52276603	66.261
FF	96.9	line_drive	309	94.4	22		94.98	1.5076	63		1.42466911	66.261
SL	88.7	line_drive	284	80.6	23		80.14	1.5412	52		1.2164018	66.261
FT	97.3	line_drive	328	92.9	24		92.66	1.519	61		1.40203136	66.261
SI	91.8	line_drive	297	89.1	25		89.16	1.5112	59		1.34468239	66.261
AVERAGES	91.339		291.778	89.017	19.778		89.068	1.518	59.000		1.343	66.261

 

Here we see that exit velo drops to 89.017.  This drop is comparable to the drop of optimal – non optimal in fly balls, it seems consistent.   Look at Bat Speed Changes vs Contact Changes.

• Bat Speed Changes assumes that his bat speed averaged 59 mph and ranged from 38-68 mph.  Possible but not likely.  If we do assume bat speed changes then smash would stay optimal.  But this isn’t happening.
• Contact Changes assumes that he swung at all his line drives at his line drive average of 66.261 mph but only the quality of contact or smash factor changed.  It dropped from 1.518 to 1.343.   This change is comparable to the fly ball smash factor change as well.
• The reality again is that it is somewhere in the middle of both.

 

Conclusion

What have we learned?  This is actually really interesting data and it lines up and makes sense.  We learned that Cano can probably have a bat speed max of 75 mph but averages 68.917 mph on fly balls and 66.261 on line drives.  We also learned that his optimal quality of contact or smash factor for fly balls is 1.458 and 1.475 for line drives.  His bad smash factor for fly balls is 1.286 and line drives is 1.343.  Knowing this data we can start to predict optimal outcomes for each swing a hitter takes.  We know the pitch speed, we have an optimal average swing speed, and we have a range of optimal smash factors.  When these are calculated we can assume that for a 95 mph fast ball, cano will have an average bat speed of 68.917, and a smash of 1.458 which would equal an exit velo of 101.7 mph.

I would like to eventually find a way to not look at barrels as the best outcome but look at individual player smash factors and exit velo to determine if his hit was an A+ grade.  This is because a barrel is a blanket equation but Dee Gordon wont get many, if any.  But he can still make A+ contact and should be credited for that.

*Reading this on mobile may cut off the charts.  There is a lot of data and it is too wide.  If you want to read it all please use a tablet but a computer is best.  Sorry.

To build on my last couple posts and dive deeper into statcast data and calculating optimal contact and bat speeds I pulled data from Baseball Savant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/hr_derby

I picked random rounds and Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Alex Bregman to see if the assumptions line up to batting practice pitch speed (assuming 60 mph) and where the hitter is going all out to swing hard at grooved pitches.

• 1.2 0.2 Exp = Is what the optimal exit velo should be based on bat speed and pitch speed.  = 1.2 x bat speed + 0.2 x pitch speed
• Opt Bat/Exit = Optimal ratios

Data

Batter	Round	Exit Velo	Distance	Launch	Pitch Speed	Bat Speed	1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Bat/Exit
Alex Bregman	1	103	422	23	60	76	103.2	1.358
Alex Bregman	1	100	401	27	60	73	99.6	1.364
Alex Bregman	1	98	399	28	60	72	98.4	1.367
Alex Bregman	1	100	385	24	60	73	99.6	1.364
Alex Bregman	1	95	386	33	60	69	94.8	1.374
Alex Bregman	1	100	416	25	60	73	99.6	1.364
Alex Bregman	1	99	404	30	60	73	99.6	1.364
Alex Bregman	1	98	390	33	60	72	98.4	1.367
Alex Bregman	1	98	377	35	60	72	98.4	1.367
Alex Bregman	1	102	413	27	60	75	102	1.360
Alex Bregman	1	100	409	23	60	73	99.6	1.364
Alex Bregman	1	98	404	31	60	72	98.4	1.367
Alex Bregman	1	98	406	29	60	72	98.4	1.367
		99.154	400.923	28.308	60.000	72.692	99.231	1.365

 

Batter	Round	Exit Velo	Distance	Launch	Pitch Speed	Bat Speed	1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Bat/Exit
Bryce Harper	3	109	434	30	60	81	109.2	1.348
Bryce Harper	3	101	386	35	60	74	100.8	1.362
Bryce Harper	3	111	478	30	60	82	110.4	1.346
Bryce Harper	3	106	444	32	60	78	105.6	1.354
Bryce Harper	3	112	452	25	60	83	111.6	1.345
Bryce Harper	3	109	429	34	60	81	109.2	1.348
Bryce Harper	3	105	408	39	60	78	105.6	1.354
Bryce Harper	3	110	438	36	60	81	109.2	1.348
Bryce Harper	3	108	450	33	60	80	108	1.350
Bryce Harper	3	109	426	30	60	81	109.2	1.348
Bryce Harper	3	109	453	31	60	81	109.2	1.348
Bryce Harper	3	112	473	31	60	83	111.6	1.345
Bryce Harper	3	109	436	26	60	81	109.2	1.348
Bryce Harper	3	108	408	39	60	80	108	1.350
Bryce Harper	3	104	362	25	60	77	104.4	1.356
Bryce Harper	3	97	382	38	60	71	97.2	1.369
Bryce Harper	3	105	439	36	60	78	105.6	1.354
Bryce Harper	3	105	427	34	60	78	105.6	1.354
		107.167	429.167	32.444	60.000	79.333	107.200	1.351

 

Batter	Round	Exit Velo	Distance	Launch	Pitch Speed	Bat Speed	1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Bat/Exit
Kyle Schwarber	3	108	446	24	60	80	108	1.350
Kyle Schwarber	3	105	422	32	60	78	105.6	1.354
Kyle Schwarber	3	109	446	26	60	81	109.2	1.348
Kyle Schwarber	3	110	442	26	60	82	110.4	1.346
Kyle Schwarber	3	110	446	30	60	82	110.4	1.346
Kyle Schwarber	3	109	430	25	60	81	109.2	1.348
Kyle Schwarber	3	105	433	30	60	78	105.6	1.354
Kyle Schwarber	3	107	442	29	60	79	106.8	1.352
Kyle Schwarber	3	111	435	22	60	83	111.6	1.345
Kyle Schwarber	3	105	413	34	60	78	105.6	1.354
Kyle Schwarber	3	112	393	18	60	83	111.6	1.345
Kyle Schwarber	3	109	430	23	60	81	109.2	1.348
Kyle Schwarber	3	104	416	34	60	77	104.4	1.356
Kyle Schwarber	3	107	441	27	60	79	106.8	1.352
Kyle Schwarber	3	98	397	26	60	72	98.4	1.367
Kyle Schwarber	3	104	435	27	60	77	104.4	1.356
Kyle Schwarber	3	104	428	33	60	77	104.4	1.356
Kyle Schwarber	3	110	453	26	60	82	110.4	1.346
		107.056	430.444	27.333	60.000	79.444	107.333	1.351

 

We are assuming perfect contact on these home runs.  We see that an Opt Bat/Exit or smash factor ratio of 1.35-1.365 on pitches 60 mph is accurate.  Remember that as the pitch speed goes up, ratios go up keeping bat speed constant.

We can also see that as bat speed increases, Opt Bat/Exit or smash factor decrease slightly.  Higher bat speeds are less efficient but higher pitch speeds also create higher ratios.

Here is that chart:

Bat Speed	Pitch Speed	1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Bat/Exit
62	40	82.4	1.329
65	40	86	1.323
68	40	89.6	1.318
72	40	94.4	1.311
76	40	99.2	1.305
62	70	88.4	1.426
65	70	92	1.415
68	70	95.6	1.406
72	70	100.4	1.394
76	70	105.2	1.384
62	80	90.4	1.458
65	80	94	1.446
68	80	97.6	1.435
72	80	102.4	1.422
76	80	107.2	1.411
62	90	92.4	1.490
65	90	96	1.477
68	90	99.6	1.465
72	90	104.4	1.450
76	90	109.2	1.437
62	95	93.4	1.506
65	95	97	1.492
68	95	100.6	1.479
72	95	105.4	1.464
76	95	110.2	1.450

 

Results

As expected, Alex Bregman has a lower bat speed than Harper or Schwarber.  Harper and Schwarber are basically identical.  This lines up with in game performance as well.

	Exit Velo	Distance	Launch	Pitch Speed	Bat Speed	1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Bat/Exit
Bryce Harper	107.167	429.167	32.444	60.000	79.333	107.200	1.351
Kyle Schwarber	107.056	430.444	27.333	60.000	79.444	107.333	1.351
Alex Bregman	99.154	400.923	28.308	60.000	72.692	99.231	1.365

 

Conclusion

So far everything is checking out.  These hitters are swinging as hard as they can in the home run derby and assuming a pitch speed of 60 mph its easy to look at the results.  These numbers coincide with in game performance as well.  Remember that in a game, hitters rarely swing as hard as they can.

We can actually dig into Harpers performance and see if his swing slowed down into later rounds.  That’s for another time…

*Reading this on mobile may cut off the charts.  There is a lot of data and it is too wide.  If you want to read it all please use a tablet but a computer is best.  Sorry.

Lets take what I discussed in my last post and apply it to the top MLB players.  I looked at the top 5 hitters from 2018 in barrels.  Then we will look at their average exit velo and compare it to optimal expected velo and find the data point that matches.  I want to point out that this is not an exact and I am probably wrong.  But its worth looking into and analyzing.  I am sure we are close but there are variables that can’t be accounted for.  We are just looking at averages and more specifically, average line drives and fly balls.

• We don’t know pitch speed but we can take the MLB average fastball at 92.8 mph.
• We don’t know the pitch
• We don’t know hit direction

If you need things defined, please read my previous post  http://caphitting.juxt.media/baseball-bat-ball-collision-using-blast-diamond-kinetics-and-hit-trax-how-can-we-use-data-for-bat-fittings/

• 1.2 0.2 Exp = Is what the optimal exit velo should be based on bat speed and pitch speed.  = 1.2 x bat speed + 0.2 x pitch speed
• Opt Bat/Exit = Optimal ratios

Players Data

	Max Exit	Avg Exit	FB LD Avg	GB Avg
Joey Gallo	117.50	93.9	99.8	85.200
Khris Davis	112.80	92.4	97.1	87.500
JD Martinez	116.70	93	96.7	89.200
Mookie Betts	110.60	92.3	95.9	88.800
Ryan Zimmerman	110.80	92.6	97.8	89.000

 

Optimal Reference Chart – Based on MLB avg fastball

Bat Speed	Pitch Speed	1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Bat/Exit
62	92.8	92.96	1.499
65	92.8	96.56	1.486
68	92.8	100.16	1.473
72	92.8	104.96	1.458
76	92.8	109.76	1.444
79	92.8	113.36	1.435
82	92.8	116.96	1.426
85	92.8	120.56	1.418

 

The average FB LD exit velo for the above 5 hitters is 97.46 MPH.  To match that to an optimal expected velo we find that the average bat speed is around 66 mph which is 97.79 mph and a 1.481 ratio (66 mph bat speed is not in the above chart).

Can we trust this data? 

I think its close.  I have worked with an MLB hitter who has a bat speed in the 80s off a tee and it drops to the upper 70s for flips.  When facing a machine at 70 mph from 45′ his bat speed was in the 73-77 mph range.  He could get into the upper 70s and then 80s if he went after it but he said he wouldn’t ever swing that hard in a game.  This still looked like a controlled swing though.

So if we take the above MLB hitter that has power and know that on a 70 mph machine he can swing in the 73-77 mph range then if we assume a 92.8 mph pitch coming in without it being grooved over the plate like a machine does could be in the upper 60s range.  I don’t think that’s a far stretch to assume.  I do think its possible that hitters in certain counts or sitting on certain pitches can unleash a 75-80 mph bat speed and crush a pitch.  This is where the 110 + mph home runs happen.  Perfect contact on a fast bat speed in the right location.  Those numbers actually agree with my findings as well.

 

Bryce Harper’s Monster Home Run

Lets apply this to an actual home run by Bryce Harper.  This was on 7/2/2018.  2-0 count and he unleashed on the ball.  I don’t think he held anything back here.  The pitch was 97.6 mph and the exit velo was 112.1.  Lets assume he made optimal contact.

https://www.mlb.com/video/statcast-harpers-439-ft-hr/c-2224391083

Bat Speed	Pitch Speed	1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Bat/Exit
68	97.6	101.12	1.487
72	97.6	105.92	1.471
76	97.6	110.72	1.457
77	97.6	111.92	1.454
78	97.6	113.12	1.450
79	97.6	114.32	1.447
82	97.6	117.92	1.438
85	97.6	121.52	1.430

It looks like he had a bat speed of 77.5 mph.

 

Another Harper Home Run

Pitch 90 and Exit Velo 112.4 = Bat Speed 79 mph

Bat Speed	Pitch Speed	1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Bat/Exit
68	90	99.6	1.465
72	90	104.4	1.450
76	90	109.2	1.437
77	90	110.4	1.434
78	90	111.6	1.431
79	90	112.8	1.428
82	90	116.4	1.420
85	90	120	1.412

 

Another Harper Home Run

Pitch 87 and Exit Velo 108.6 = Bat Speed 76 mph.  This was offspeed, not sure of the pitch but here is where spin matters and pitch matters.  You see how far he hit the ball with only a 108.6 exit velo.  This is where you hear MLB hitters talk about reversing the spin on breaking balls.

Bat Speed	Pitch Speed	1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Bat/Exit
68	87	99	1.456
72	87	103.8	1.442
76	87	108.6	1.429
77	87	109.8	1.426
78	87	111	1.423
79	87	112.2	1.420
82	87	115.8	1.412
85	87	119.4	1.405

 

Aaron Judge – Not every hit is a home run

Pitch 97.  Exit Velo 118.1.  Bat Speed 82 mph.

Bat Speed	Pitch Speed	1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Bat/Exit
68	97	101	1.485
72	97	105.8	1.469
76	97	110.6	1.455
77	97	111.8	1.452
78	97	113	1.449
79	97	114.2	1.446
82	97	117.8	1.437
85	97	121.4	1.428

 

Josh Donaldson

Pitch Speed 93.  Exit Velo 109.5.  Bat Speed 75 mph.

Bat Speed	Pitch Speed	1.2 0.2 Exp	Opt Bat/Exit
68	93	100.2	1.474
72	93	105	1.458
76	93	109.8	1.445
77	93	111	1.442
78	93	112.2	1.438
79	93	113.4	1.435
82	93	117	1.427
85	93	120.6	1.419

 

Conclusion

I guess we can go over every home run and play with this but its showing accurate that Bryce Harper has an upper 70s bat speed.  Aaron Judge has a lower 80s bat speed.  Josh Donaldson has a mid 70s bat speed.  If we really wanted to get technical we could look at every home run Harper hit in 2018 and break it down then average everything out.  Where I am more interested is in seeing the quality of contact and instead of us using barrels as best quality we can get more detail and start to look at optimal contact for each player.  Its easier for Judge to barrel at his swing speed vs Donaldson.  But does that mean that Donaldson has more “skill” if he can create the same number of barrels?  Now we can look at actual skill vs raw power.

I’m sure we will break more swings down over the next season.  This is fun.